Submitted by the San Juan County Department of Emergency Management

The National Weather Service has updated their forecast with the latest information available. They are forecasting with higher certainty that storm one of two this weekend will start early evening tonight, Oct. 13, with the strongest winds starting late in the evening and lasting into Friday morning. We should have winds of 30–40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. We usually have several of these each winter.

As for storm two, there is still uncertainty. This storm originated with Typhoon Songda and is still located 5,000 miles away. The weather service stressed that a lot of variation can happen in the 48-hours this storm will take to travel to our coast. We don’t have firm numbers for wind speeds – gust to 75 mph have been suggested starting Saturday evening and lasting into Sunday morning. If that’s the case this will still be the worst storm in many years, but not a Columbus Day-worst-storm-ever type.

It’s frustrating not to be able to report actual forecasts for potential wind speed and landfall. We like to quantify things to gain perspective by comparison with previous events and experiences we have had. The obvious reality is we can’t control any of the factors surrounding where the storm tracks, but we can control how we prepare.

It is a bit of a tightrope walk trying to find a balance in messages. Is the storm series being presented as too dangerous or not dangerous enough? For this storm series, we prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Throughout the islands people are making preparations: putting up supplies, responders making sure things are all set at home for their families, public works has saws sharpened and fueled, groups talking about providing shelters if needed, people talking about solutions to potential storm challenges – lots of wonderful community activity. If we start to look at this as a giant community-wide preparedness and earthquake drill we will be much the better for it. If we continue to prepare for the worst storm, we will have done all that’s within our power to be ready for this. If it’s not that bad, we will have been ready and we can let out our breath in a great collective community sigh of relief knowing that we are better off for what we have done.

Thanks to everyone who is making the steps to be ready. If you are not quite there yet, there is still a bit of time to do so – we’ll all be stronger for it.

You can find more preparedness information at the DEM website http://sanjuandem.net or contact the DEM office at, 370-0587, or email dem@sanjuandem.net.