Tsunami alerts popping up on islanders’ cell phones the evening of July 29 caused some panic and confusion. The advisories were legitimate, stemming from an 8.8 earthquake off the Kamchatka coast in Russia. It is currently considered the sixth strongest earthquake on record.
“It was a massive subduction zone quake, like the Cascadia Subduction Zone,” said Dr. Harold Tobin, University of Washington professor and director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network in Seattle. The Cascadia Subduction Zone is located off the Pacific Coast, running from Canada to California, and has been the source of similarly massive earthquakes and tsunamis in the past.
The Kamchatka quake now has the distinction of not only being one of the most powerful, but also with no deaths, Tobin pointed out. Considering areas near the epicenter recorded 30-foot waves, that is a happy distinction. Part of that is due to the fact that after a large quake in 1952, towns, already located in a remote area, were rebuilt on higher ground. New technology, like the tsunami alerts, also helped give people time to evacuate. One of the takeaways from this quake, Tobin said, is that the warning system works.
To clarify the system, Tobin said, a tsunami watch indicates a tsunami was generated. An advisory or warning predicts a tsunami is on the way, to watch out for dangerous currents, and to stay out of the water and off beaches and follow any other local instructions.
A warning or threat means to take action, move to higher ground and follow local instructions.
On July 29, the San Juan County Department of Emergency Management was ready with instructions. The second one assured the community that “At this time, we feel increasingly confident saying that there will be no significant impacts to San Juan County from this event. The forecast is for impacts of less than one foot for all of Washington, including the outer coast. That would indicate that San Juan County will see little or no impact.”
DEM added that they recommend anyone on the water in boats or kayaks be on alert for unusually strong currents starting after midnight on July 30, and lasting through the day. “Anyone contemplating swimming in the ocean should wait until Thursday. Significant current impacts are unlikely in the San Juan Islands, but not out of the question.”
A third notice was sent out reaffirming that the forecast remained little or no impacts to the San Juan Islands, and they requested that anyone encountering anything unusual or witnessing impacts of any kind email Director Brendan Cowan at brendanc@sanjuancountywa.gov or post them to this post on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/sanjuandem/.
“REMINDER: current best available science tells us that we will always feel the earthquake if there will be major tsunami impacts in the islands. That science continues to evolve, but that is our current understanding,” Cowan wrote in that third statement.
Tobin explained that in most cases, moving 50-100 feet above sea level is more than high enough ground. Similar to what Cowan has told islanders, Tobin advised making a plan. While a major quake stemming from the Cascadia Subduction Zone will be catastrophic, people should not throw their hands in the air and give up, thinking “we are all going to die. Instead, Tobn says, have at least two weeks’ worth of supplies ready, and have a plan to getting to higher ground if necessary. Do not depend on a car for evactuation. Not only may there be trees and other obstacles in the roadway due to the earthquake, but gridlock could prevent people from getting out if everyone attempted to drive.
Generally speaking, Tobin says, “Anyone thinking they are going to be able to drive – that just isn’t going to work.”
On Wednesday, the Associated Press reported that two-foot waves hit some areas of Japan. Although people on the coastline were evacuated, one person was injured.
See https://apnews.com/article/japan-russia-kamchatka-earthquake-tsunami-warning-a88cbe8a1e985cff54dc0ad849ea5ddb for more.
California also reported some wave action with Crescent City damages to the harbor. One Crescent City dock reportedly sustained nearly a million in damages, according to Tobin.
Tidal gauges on the outer coast of Washington and around Port Angeles registered minor irregularities as a result of the tsunami generated by the Kamchatka quake. Friday Harbor readings were fairly normal.
“This could have been much worse. To have such a big quake [with no loss of life], it was a very happy outcome and there is a lot we can learn from it,” Tobin said.
To view the data, go to NOAA’s Tides and Currents at
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html?region=Washington.